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By Lanbo Jiang
Vietnam is the most compelling emerging market economies, from the 90s of last century to 2009, real GDP growth in Vietnam over the years were higher than the world average and the average level of developing countries in 2009, is the only world 12 achieved economic growth in the world. According to the International Monetary Fund “World Economic Outlook Database” and “International Financial Statistics” data, from 2000 to 2009, Vietnam total GDP (current prices in U.S. dollars) increased from $ 31,196,000,000 to $ 97,180,000,000, the per capita GDP rose from $ 402 723 in 2007 dollars, in 2009 and further increased to $ 1,132.6.
So far, Vietnam has ranked the ranks of middle-income countries. China’s rapid growth in Vietnam’s trading partners, China and Vietnam to establish comprehensive strategic partnership, China – ASEAN Free Trade Area and deepening into operation, is improving the economic and trade development in the environment, more and more Chinese enterprises to the Vietnamese market place interest. But with the other overseas markets, Chinese enterprises need to open up Vietnam attaches great importance to its macroeconomic fluctuations.
Large-scale investment potential currency crisis
Compared with other developing countries, Vietnam has a significant macro-economic stability and political stability of the strong advantages; but compared to most developed countries of China and Vietnam’s macroeconomic stability and bad, its financial revenue and expenditure, the International balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate fluctuations and other indicators very strong, to bring in more foreign business risks can not be ignored.
In 2008, Vietnam was the outbreak of the “high inflation, asset market crash + + current account deficit” crisis trend. In respect of its internal factor, inflation, balance of payments crisis, the asset market bubbles and the burst came from the blind pursuit of high economic growth Vietnam’s guiding ideology, it is in the guiding ideology, the Vietnamese government will not only increase the scale of investment to an unreasonable degree, from 2002 to 2006, the proportion of GDP, Vietnam has invested more than 33% in 2007 to further improve to 40.6%, and complemented by continued over-loose monetary policy.
High investment weakened financial stability, stimulate import growth out of control, over-easy monetary policy not only fueled inflation, but also blew the asset market bubbles; Vietnam to cover current account deficits and investment – and the savings gap substantial relaxation of foreign policy, especially into the financial services market, liberal foreign investment policies were far more than China, further exacerbating the asset market and exchange rate volatility.
More prominent is the trend after the impact of the crisis in 2008, Vietnam is still not completely change its blind bias of high investment, total social investment in 2009 amounted to 704.2 trillion VND, an increase of 15.3%, accounting for 42.8 of GDP %, the Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City close to the national high-speed rail plan 60% of the cost of GDP, this project just by Congress in 2010 rejected construction of eight nuclear power plants in one breath the plan and beautifully, and the government still intends to re-submit to the Congress in Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City high-speed railway project. It is in this context, the new international balance of payments and currency crisis looming shadow of Vietnam.
In 2001, Vietnam has a current account surplus of $ 683,000,000; Since 2002, Vietnam Trade Payments and the current account deficit are converted, and the increasing size of the deficit. 2003 to 2008, Vietnam current account deficit rose from $ 1,931,000,000 to $ 10,787,000,000, the trade deficit rose from $ 2,581,000,000 to $ 12,782,000,000. Although the result from the May 2008 wave of the impact of the crisis from being the passive emergency import compression, so that the second half of 2008, trade balance and current account improved in 2009, the year the current account deficit and trade deficit fell to 74.40, respectively, billion dollars and 8.306 billion U.S. dollars, which was once the first quarter of 2009, the current account surplus in balance of payments and trade balance double, but since the second quarter of 2009, restored the balance of payments current account and trade deficit double, and increasing the amount of the deficit.
Second quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter, the current account deficit were $ 2,234,000,000, $ 3,708,000,000 and $ 4,284,000,000, the trade deficit were $ 2,653,000,000, $ 3,377,000,000 and $ 4,604,000,000. In this case, from the third quarter of 2009 has been increasingly undermined international liquidity in Vietnam has now dropped to a dangerous situation.
Generally speaking, a country’s foreign exchange reserves at least 3 months should be sufficient to meet the demand for imports; from the third quarter of 2009, Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves at end of quarter in a row below the seasonal imports. Even with the special drawing rights and other reserve assets, the use of more liberal “total reserves minus gold” indicators to measure Vietnam’s international liquidity, this indicator is also in the fourth quarter of 2009 and lower than the quarter imports Le.
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